"In the first quarter, in the face of the severe and complex international environment and arduous domestic reform, development and stabilization tasks, all regions and departments have seriously implemented the decisions and plans made by the CPC Central Committee and the State Council, adhered to the principle of "steady as the first step" and "seeking progress amidst stability", implemented the new concept of development in a complete, accurate and comprehensive manner, accelerated the construction of a new development pattern, made efforts to promote high-quality development, better coordinated the domestic and international two overall situations, better integrated the prevention and control of epidemics and economic and social development, better integrated development and security, and highlighted the importance of stabilizing and stabilizing the economy. Better integrating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, better integrating development and security, and highlighting the work of stabilizing growth, employment and prices; epidemic prevention and control has made a quicker and smoother transition, production and demand has stabilized and rebounded, employment and prices have been generally stable, people's incomes have continued to increase, market expectations have improved markedly, and the economy has made a good start to its operation." Fu Linghui, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and director of the Department of Comprehensive Statistics on National Economy, said at a press conference on the operation of the national economy in the first quarter held by the State Council Information Office on April 18th.
On April 18, the State Council Information Office held a press conference in Beijing, in which Fu Linghui, spokesman of the National Bureau of Statistics and director of the Department of Comprehensive National Economy Statistics, introduced the operation of the national economy in the first quarter of 2023 and answered questions from reporters.
Preliminary estimates show that the GDP for the first quarter was 284,997,000,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% at constant prices, and a 2.2% ringgit increase over the fourth quarter of the previous year. In terms of industries, the value added of the primary industry was RMB 11575 billion, up 3.7% year-on-year; the value added of the secondary industry was RMB 10794.7 billion, up 3.3%; and the value added of the tertiary industry was RMB 165475 billion, up 5.4%.
The first quarter of the industrial realize steady growth
"The first quarter of industry realized steady growth. Since the beginning of this year, with the epidemic prevention and control faster and stable transition, stable growth policies continue to show results, market demand is warming up, the industrial chain supply chain to speed up the recovery of industrial production has seen several positive changes." Fu Linghui said that in the first quarter, the national industrial value added above designated size increased by 3.0% year-on-year, accelerated by 0.3 percentage points compared with the fourth quarter of the previous year. In three major categories, the value added of the mining industry grew by 3.2%, the manufacturing industry grew by 2.9%, and the electricity, heat, gas and water production and supply industry grew by 3.3%. The value-added of the equipment manufacturing industry grew by 4.3%, accelerating by 2.5 percentage points from January to February. There are mainly the following characteristics:
First, most industries maintained growth. In the first quarter, of the 41 major industrial sectors, 23 sectors maintained year-on-year growth, with a growth rate of more than 50%. Compared with the fourth quarter of last year, 20 industries value-added growth rate rebounded.
Secondly, the equipment manufacturing industry plays an obvious supporting role. As the trend of China's industrial upgrading strengthens, the capacity and level of equipment manufacturing are upgraded, and production maintains faster growth. In the first quarter, the value-added of the equipment manufacturing industry grew by 4.3% year-on-year, 1.3 percentage points higher than that of the planned industry, and its contribution to the growth of industries above designated size reached 42.5%. Among them, electrical machinery, railroads and ships and other industries added value increased by 15.1%, 9.3%.
Thirdly, the raw material manufacturing sector grew at a faster pace. With the steady recovery of the economy, the steady growth of investment has strengthened the impetus of the raw materials industry, and the related production has maintained a faster growth. In the first quarter, the value-added of raw materials manufacturing increased by 4.7% year-on-year, 1.7 percentage points higher than that of formal industry. Among them, ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry and nonferrous metal smelting and rolling industry grew by 5.9% and 6.9% respectively. From the product point of view, in the first quarter, steel, ten non-ferrous metal production increased by 5.8%, 9%.
Fourthly, the production of small and micro-enterprises improved. In the first quarter, the value-added of small and micro enterprises above designated size grew by 3.1% year-on-year, faster than the growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size. The questionnaire survey shows that small and micro-industrial enterprises under the regulation of the Prosperity Index than in the fourth quarter of last year, an increase of 1.7 percentage points, production and business conditions of good enterprises accounted for 1.2 percentage points.
"In addition, business expectations are generally good, the PMI of the manufacturing industry has been in the outlook range for three consecutive months, green products such as new energy vehicles and solar cells have maintained double-digit growth, and the transformation of industrial greening has continued. However, we should also see that the international environment remains complex and severe, there is uncertainty in the growth of external demand, the domestic market demand constraints still exist, the price of industrial products is still declining, and the efficiency of enterprises is facing a lot of difficulties." Fu Linghui said that in the next stage, we should implement various policies and initiatives to stabilize growth, focus on expanding domestic demand, deepen the supply-side structural reform, vigorously reform and upgrade traditional industries, cultivate and grow new industries, promote a higher level of dynamic balance between supply and demand, and promote the healthy development of industry.
China's foreign trade is resilient and dynamic
According to the data recently released by the General Administration of Customs, in terms of US dollars, the export value in March increased by 14.8% year-on-year, with the growth rate accelerated by 21.6 percentage points compared with that of January-February, turning positive for the first time since October last year; imports decreased by 1.4% year-on-year, with the decline rate narrowed by 8.8 percentage points compared with that of January-February, and the trade surplus realized in March was 88.19 billion USD. the performance of exports in March was far better than expected, while imports were slightly weaker than expected. Is this strong momentum sustainable?
"Since the beginning of this year, China's imports and exports have continued to grow on the basis of last year's high base, which is not easy. In the first quarter, the total value of imports and exports of goods grew by 4.8% year-on-year, of which exports grew by 8.4%, maintaining a relatively fast growth. It is not easy to achieve such growth when the world economy is slowing down and external uncertainties are high." Fu Linghui said.
Fu Linghui said that in the next stage, China's import and export growth is facing certain pressure, which is mainly manifested in the following: First, the world economic growth is weak. According to the International Monetary Fund's forecast, the global economy is expected to grow by 2.8% in 2023, which is significantly lower than last year's growth rate. According to the latest forecast of the WTO, the volume of global merchandise trade will grow by 1.7% in 2023, which is significantly lower than last year. Secondly, there is greater external uncertainty. Since the beginning of this year, inflation levels in the United States and Europe have been relatively high, monetary policies have been tightened continuously, and the recent exposure of liquidity crises in some banks in the United States and Europe has aggravated the instability of economic operations. At the same time, geopolitical risks remain, and the rise of unilateralism and protectionism has exacerbated instability and uncertainty in global trade and economics.
"Despite the pressures and challenges, China's foreign trade is characterized by strong resilience and vitality, and with the function of various policies to stabilize foreign trade, the country is expected to achieve the goal of promoting stability and improving quality throughout the year." According to Fu Linghui, first of all, China's industrial system is relatively complete and its market supply capacity is relatively strong, so it is able to adapt to changes in the foreign demand market. Secondly, China insists on expanding foreign trade and opening up to the outside world, continuously expanding the space for foreign trade. In the first quarter, China's import and export to countries along the "Belt and Road" has increased by 16.8%, while that to other RCEP member countries has increased by 7.3%, of which export has increased by 20.2%.
Thirdly, the growth of new dynamic energy in China's foreign trade has gradually shown its role in supporting foreign trade growth. Recently, the General Administration of Customs also mentioned in the release that in the first quarter, exports of electric passenger vehicles, lithium batteries and solar batteries grew by 66.9%, and the growth of cross-border e-commerce and other new forms of foreign trade was also relatively fast.
"From a comprehensive point of view, the next stage of stabilizing foreign trade policies will continue to show results, which is conducive to the realization of foreign trade throughout the year to promote stability and improve the quality of the goal." Fu Linghui said.
Annual economic growth is expected to gradually pick up
"Since the beginning of this year, China's economy as a whole has been recovering, with major indicators stabilizing and rebounding, business owners' vitality increasing, and market expectations improving significantly, laying a better foundation for achieving the expected development goals for the whole year." said Fu Linghui. Fu Linghui said.
According to Fu Linghui, from the next stage, the endogenous power of China's economic growth is gradually increasing, and the macro policies are working effectively, so the economic operation is expected to improve as a whole. Considering that the base figure for the second quarter of last year was relatively low due to the impact of the epidemic, the economic growth rate in the second quarter of this year may be significantly faster than that in the first quarter. In the third and fourth quarters, as the base figure rises, the rate of growth will fall from that of the second quarter. If the base figure is not taken into account, economic growth for the year as a whole is expected to show a gradual upturn. The main supporting factors are as follows:
First, the pulling effect of consumption is gradually increasing. Since the beginning of this year, consumption has been on a clear upturn, and its impetus to economic growth has been increasing. The contribution rate of final consumption to economic growth is higher than that of last year; with the improvement of the employment situation, the promotion of consumption policies, and the increase in the number of consumption scenarios, residents' consumption capacity and willingness to consume are expected to rise. At the same time, we are actively expanding the bulk consumption of new energy vehicles and green and smart home appliances, promoting the integration of online and offline consumption, developing new forms and modes of consumption, and accelerating the enhancement of the quality and expansion of the rural market, all of which are conducive to the sustained growth of consumption and driving economic growth.
Second, stable investment growth is expected to continue. Since the beginning of this year, various regions have actively promoted the commencement of construction of major projects, and investment has maintained steady growth overall. In the first quarter, fixed-asset investment grew by 5.1%. In the next stage, with the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries, the innovative development of new industries will continue, and support for the real economy will increase, which will be conducive to investment growth. In the first quarter, investment in the manufacturing sector grew by 7%, faster than the overall investment growth. Among them, investment in high-tech manufacturing grew by 15.2%. Infrastructure investment grew at a faster pace. Since the beginning of this year, various regions have been actively promoting infrastructure construction, and the effects are gradually being seen. In the first quarter, infrastructure investment rose by 8.8% year-on-year, boosting the momentum for sustained development.
Thirdly, industrial transformation and upgrading have brought more impetus. China has deeply implemented the innovation-driven development strategy, strengthened its strategic scientific and technological strength, and promoted industrial upgrading and development, with the rapid development of 5G networks, information, artificial intelligence and other technologies, as well as the emergence of new industries; the value-added of the equipment manufacturing industry grew by 4.3% in the first quarter, and the technological intensity of the industry has been steadily rising. At the same time, the pace of green and low-carbon transformation of energy has accelerated, the demand for new products has expanded, and the traditional industries have increased in energy conservation, consumption reduction and reform, and the driving effect has also been enhanced. In the first quarter, the output of new energy automobiles and solar cells maintained rapid growth. The high-end, intelligent and green development of industries will inject new impetus into China's economic development.
Fourthly, macroeconomic policies have continued to show results. Since the beginning of this year, all regions and departments have followed through on the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference and the Government's work report to implement the plan, and the positive fiscal policy has been strengthened to enhance the effectiveness of the prudent monetary policy is precise and powerful, highlighting the work of steady growth, stable employment and stable prices, and the effect of the policy has been constantly apparent, and the economic operation in the first quarter has stabilized and rebounded.
"In the next stage, with the Party Central Committee and State Council's decisions and plans to further implement the details, the policy effect will be further apparent, the momentum of China's economic development will continue to strengthen, and promote the economic operation of the restoration of the good." Fu Linghui said.
Post time: Apr-23-2023
